Denial, Dilution, deflection and delay: A case for 2011 Elections

For some reason political alarm bells are not ringing as many indicators are now showing that the Government of National Unity is indirectly extending its term by not having Presidential Elections in 2011. In many ways all the principals of the Government of National Unity have agreed at one time that the global political agreement was a marriage of convenience. However this marriage now looks like it was conducted to gain entry and long term residency in government.

There is compelling evidence that all the principals of the Government of National Unity are instrumental rational actors seeking to maximise utility. Typically two of the trusted principals have violated their party constitutions to maintain leadership. Against this background this article will argue that political principles should be applied consistently. It thereby characterises the principals of the Government of National Unity as shape shifters. In so doing it draws upon the action of the principals under four categories:
• Denial,
• Dilution,
• Deflection and
• Delay

Denial “If they can't swallow facts, let them eat fiction”

There is no doubt that self interest is now at the heart of the Government of National Unity. The principals would natural feel obliged to deny it and argue that national interest is still at the forefront. It is obvious that something is wrong when talk does not mirror actions and when agreements become informally void. To be more specific the importance of the 2 year benchmark is being downplayed by insinuations that the agreement has not been fully implemented. Having said that let me expose two denials; namely failure and principle.

The reality is that the Government of National Unity has failed to meet the 2 year benchmark. It is important to note that politicians have never been good at acknowledging failure. Instead they opt for the blame card and pleading for more time. Indeed this is true with the principals of the GNU who are now denying their failure to deliver and are campaigning for more time.

It’s now known that the parties involved in the Government of National Unity are not principled as they claim to be, they have violated the constitutions of their political parties. While the argument for constitutional reform and institutional engineering is worth it, what’s the point of it if it’s going to be violated? Moreover the political problems of Zimbabwe are so serious that getting the basics right is difficult because of the lack of principled and credible leaders. Having said that, the decline of Zimbabwe was not a constitutional or an institutional issue but it was about a bad leadership which manipulated the constitution and institutions. There is no doubt that the current developments and political direction suggests a déjà vu.

Dilution “Talk is cheap”

Many people welcomed the Government of National Unity because it was seen as providing an adversarial system and therefore leading to greater transparency and accountability. What’s more was the expectation of collaborative advantage by working together than operating independently. However evidence now shows that some transformation has somehow taken place in the Government of National Unity in the form of the two new political parties conforming to the practices their old rival. This can be seen in the adoption of corrupt practices and worshiping their rival.
The conforming two parties have evidently deployed tactics which exhibit authoritarian characteristics in that they are making sure in every way that have to maintain leadership. In some instances they have refused to take orders from the parties they represent with the backing of their old rival. What’s more is that individuals who are political threats to the leadership are now being weeded out through political nomination exclusion tactics. In so doing the political capacity is diluted.

The two transformed principals have expressed their affection for their rival by showering him with huge praises. The momentum of praises is not decelerating as the media recently uncovered another love Letter by a young opposition minister showering the old rival with praises just as his older colleagues. This gives the public a glimpse of the private discussions which contradict public discourse and this prompts the question whether the opposition is really the opposition?

Deflection “Running away will never set you free”

The Government of National Unity had five priorities to deal with namely: the economy, human rights violations, poverty, international relations and preparing for elections. There is no doubt that all the priorities are important but some are obviously more important and urgent than the others because they impact on the foundation of democracy and good governance. These priorities involve dealing with the economy, poverty and more importantly human rights violations. Sadly these have been deflected in two ways by telling half the story and pretending.

We have been told the good story about dollarisation and the falling down of inflation. However the use of dollar in Zimbabwe has tremendous disadvantages for the economy because it is a heavy currency which is less competitive against other lower currencies used by other countries. Indeed indicators tell us a lot when they show that the country’s economy is being boosted by tourism when Zimbabwe has second largest platinum reserves in the world. Agricultural exports which were the backbone of the economy have not yet bounced back and manufacturing companies continue to close down and struggle to pay workers.

There has been lack of honesty around addressing the human rights violations in Zimbabwe, specifically the 1980s Atrocities and 2008 election violence. It was obvious and it is still obvious that this was supposed to be the first step towards democracy and good governance. A national healing organ was put in place to deal with the issue of human rights violations. However it’s shocking to learn that the organ itself does not clearly understand its mandate and what’s more is that its custodians have now become victims.

Delay “Delay is the deadliest form of denial”

It’s now becoming clearer that elections are not going to be held in 2011.Indeeed we have been furnished with the reasons why they should not be held. However politicians are not spelling out how they will benefit from this. What’s more the development contradicts the positions of the principals of the Government of National Unity in two ways; the first being the lack of consistency and gauging public mood.

From the outset of the negotiations the older rival wanted a full term but the idea was shot down by the second older rival who argued that the Government of National Unity should mainly prepare the ground for elections. The third principal of the Government of National Unity was even suggesting that they should be no time limit. At many different times one of the principals threatened to pull out and call for a snap election. However the emergence of the diplomatic cables through wickileaks turned the tide against him. With this in mind let’s turn to gauging the public mood.

Some of the diplomatic cables heavily damaged the credibility of the rival who wanted to opt out the GNU and they vindicated the old rival to a certain extent. This also changed the public mood and the position of rival with the damaged credibility. The rival started to calibrate his call for elections by limiting it to Presidential elections then eventually he applied the brake gently on the elections by arguing that the Global Political Agreement was not yet fully implemented. On the contrary the old rival gauging the public mood after the wickileaks cables saw an opportunity to do away with his colleagues through a snap election.

In conclusion however the current developments are played in different sources of media the reality is, it is a positive sum game (a win win) for the Government of National Unity principals. Indeed one principal will have to wait for the public mood to cool down without losing and the other two can enjoy their full term as they wanted. The developments are also a strong warning to the public that they should care less about what politicians say but carefully watch their actions and judge them by their fidelity to political principles. More importantly the GNU seems to have provided Zimbabwe with three principals with similar characteristics. The difference may be that the other two are trainees or apprentices who are yet to graduate as evidence shows that first its two years, then three, four, five and before we start complaining it would be thirty years.